Housing Market Indicators
Long-run property market data for New Zealand and Australia, drawn from the Bank for International Settlements, the OECD, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, and Stats NZ.
About the Data
Real House Price Indices
Harmonised long series from the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), base year 2010=100, deflated by CPI. Available from 1970 for both New Zealand and Australia. These are the most credible cross-country comparable house price series available.
Source: BIS Residential Property Price Statistics, Q3 2025 release.
Price-to-Income Ratio
OECD Affordable Housing Database indicator, seasonally adjusted, 2015=100. Tracks the relationship between nominal house prices and nominal disposable income per capita. The long-run median (1986-2025) is 88.9.
Source: OECD Affordable Housing Database, Indicator HM1.2.
Real HPI Deviation from Trend
Percentage deviation of the real HPI from its long-run stochastic trend, estimated using a one-sided Hodrick-Prescott filter (lambda=400,000). Positive values indicate overvaluation relative to trend.
Mortgage Rates & Household DTI
1-year fixed mortgage rates from the RBNZ B20 series. Household debt-to-disposable-income ratio from RBNZ key statistics.
Source: RBNZ B20, C40, and household debt statistics.
Building Consents & Net Migration
Annual building consents (dwellings, thousands) and net international migration (thousands) from Stats NZ/Tatauranga Aotearoa.
Source: Stats NZ Building Consents Issued and International Migration releases.
NZ & Australia Real House Price Indices (BIS, 2010=100)
Real prices deflated by CPI. The structural break around 2000 is evident in both countries.
View Data Table
NZ Price-to-Income Ratio (OECD, 2015=100)
Dashed line represents the long-run median (88.9). At 105.8 as of 2025, the ratio is elevated but has declined 26% from the 2021 peak of 142.9.
Real HPI Deviation from Long-Run Trend
Positive values indicate overvaluation. The deviation has fallen from +38% at the 2021 peak to approximately +8%.
Mortgage Rates & Household Debt-to-Income
1-year fixed mortgage rate (left axis) and household debt-to-disposable-income ratio (right axis).
View Data Table
Building Consents & Net Migration (1995-2025)
Building consents (bars, thousands of dwellings) and net international migration (line, thousands of people). Source: Stats NZ.
View Data Table
Real House Price Declines: Peak to Trough
Selected advanced economy housing corrections. NZ and AU corrections have been moderate by historical standards.